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Pra quê causalidade se há correlação?

July 14th, 2008

Eu admito que posso não ter entendido completamente.
Alguém aqui leu a matéria de capa da última Wired: The End of Science?

Basicamente, Chris Anderson diz que devido a abundância de dados e da capacidade de processamento atual (chegando a quantidades de petabytes - leia-se “Google”), não precisamos mais de modelos para explicar a natureza, ou comportamento das coisas. A capacidade de interpretação de quantidades absurdas de dados é tão poderosa, que as respostas às ações mais imprevisíveis do Universo podem ser “compreendidas” através de uma pesada análise desses dados. O resultado é originado na correlação desses dados, dispensando conhecimentos mais profundos da origem e natureza dessas variáveis, ou seja, causalidade.

Admiro bastante o trabalho do Chris Anderson, mas às vezes acho que ele força a barra um pouquinho. Em uma frase da matéria, ele questiona até a necessidade da psicologia. Acho que a descoberta é válida, mas dentro de um contexto. Humanos sempre vão querer ir a fundo em suas individualizações.

Como trabalho e estudo mídia, o ponto onde ele “manda esquecer” a Taxonomia se torna bem interessante. Muitas empresas de geração de metadados baseiam seus negócios nisso: taxonomia e folksonomia (em simples palavras, catalogação com ajuda de usuários). A maioria do sites 2.0 que usamos, como youtube e flickr, funcionam da mesma forma. Ajudamos os sites a catalogarem as informações. Isto é assim, porque ainda não existe um sistema autômato bom o suficiente para reconhecer o conteúdo e catalogar de forma relevante para humanos. Mas se a era dos petabytes for realmente como ele diz, muitas empresas de metadados estarão fechando as portas. Quem ganha com isso é usuário, que vai dispor de buscas com resultados muito mais relevantes.

Ele exemplifica o uso da correlação falando do modo como o Google calcula a relevância das páginas na internet. O sistema não precisa saber o conteúdo de cada página, mas sim, quantos outros sites estão ligados a elas.

Mas pra mim tem um furo aí. Ele fala da ausência de modelos, mas qualquer algorítmo que for usado para organizar os dados é um modelo em si.

As próprias regras que o Google usa para categorizar a relevância das páginas a serem colocadas num resultado de busca constitui um modelo, ao meu ver.

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